Patrick R. Galloway

 

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Research

The following are some of my interests. Each article can be downloaded.
 

Short-run fluctuations in population, births, marriages, deaths, prices, and weather

 

I have written many articles about short-run fluctuations, using a distributed lag model, sometimes with interaction terms.  Perhaps the most interesting finding is the universal and significant negative fertility response to price increases in preindustrial countries.   Mortality usually rises with price increases, cold winters, and hot summers.  I also examined the responses by measures of welfare such as rents, and by age.   Interactive models are most useful when assessing the responses according to some measure of wealth or over time. For short-run analysis, one needs fairly long series of annual births, marriages, or deaths, and prices.   Such series exist for many places throughout Europe, and for a few places in Asia.  To successfully assess the weather impacts one needs long series of monthly temperatures recorded by instruments.   One nice feature of this kind of analysis is that one does not generally need population counts or nominal wages, which are relatively rare in the historical record.

 

Galloway, Patrick R., "Annual variations in deaths by age, deaths by cause, prices, and weather in London 1670 to 1830," Population Studies, 1985, vol. 39, no. 3, pp. 487-505. Download.

 

Galloway, Patrick R., "Differentials in demographic responses to annual price variations in pre-revolutionary France: a comparison of rich and poor areas in Rouen, 1681 to 1787," European Journal of Population, 1986, vol. 2, no. 3/4, pp. 269-305. Download.

 

Galloway, Patrick R., "Basic patterns in annual variations in fertility, nuptiality, mortality, and prices in pre-industrial Europe," Population Studies, 1988, vol. 42, no. 2, pp. 275-303. Download.

 

Galloway, Patrick R., "Short-run population dynamics among the rich and poor in European countries, rural Jutland, and urban Rouen," in Old and New Methods in Historical Demography, 1993, Oxford: Clarendon, eds. Reher, D.S. and Schofield, R., Chapter 6, pp. 84-108. Download.

 

Galloway, Patrick R., "Secular changes in the short-term preventive, positive, and temperature checks to population growth in Europe, 1460-1909," Climatic Change, 1994, vol. 26, pp. 3-63. Download.


Long-run fluctuations in population, population rates, real wages, and climate

 

The following was one of my first publications.   I am still engaged in research along these lines.   I published it as a graduate student despite my advisor, Prof. Kenneth Wachter, stating that I should not be publishing papers.  Fortunately, Prof. Ronald Lee took a look at the paper and suggested I submit it to the Population Association of America for the Dorothy Thomas Award. He also encouraged me to submit it for publication. I did so, and it won the Dorothy Thomas Award and it was published.   Graduate school was amusing.

 

Galloway, Patrick R., "Long-term fluctuations in climate and population in the preindustrial era," Population and Development Review, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 1-24,  March, 1986. Download.

 

Inverse projection  

 

Inverse projection is a technique that generates age structure, gross reproduction rate, life expectancy and other demographic measures from an initial population count and series of births, deaths, and net migration. It uses various model demographic tables.   I applied annual inverse projection to Northern Italy, England, France, Sweden, Stockholm, Verona, Venice, and  Rome and obtained some useful results. Further work examining more cities and small areas would likely be informative.

 

Galloway, Patrick R., "A reconstruction of the population of North Italy 1650 to 1881 using annual inverse projection with comparisons to England, France, and Sweden," European Journal of Population, 1994 vol. 10, pp. 223-274. Download.

 

Galloway Prussia Database 1861 to 1914

 

I was not satisfied with the data or methods found in the Princeton European Fertility Project's many books on the fertility transition in Europe.  In the late 1980s, I discovered that the University of California library happened to have a fairly complete set of the 305 volume Preussische Statistik 1861-1934 buried in an off-campus storage facility.  The volumes were appropriated by the US Army from Berlin shortly after the end of World War II.  They provide much socioeconomic information in great detail for many small units of analysis.   I created the Prussia database in the late 1980s and early 1990s to study the fertility and mortality transitions in Prussia.  The way grant money is distributed in the United States, the University of California was at the time a useful place to obtain funding.  

Galloway, Patrick R., "Prussia vital registration and census data description tables 1849 to 1914 using Kreise and cities >20,000 as units of analysis", 1988, updated in 2007. Download.

 

Galloway, Patrick R., "Prussia Code Book 1861-1914", 1992, updated in 2007. Download.


Galloway, Patrick R., "The golden age of published demographic data in Europe 1850-1915: sources and research possibilities", 2008. Download.


To access the Galloway Prussia Database 1861 to 1914, click here.

 

Fertility and infant mortality decline in Prussia 1875 to 1910

 

Nearly all earlier studies of fertility decline in Europe actually examined fertility levels. A more useful approach is to look at fertility changes, using a pooled cross-section time series analysis (also called panel analysis or fixed effects analysis). The Prussia Database is a particularly rich source for studying changes in important socioeconomic variables over time. The results generally suggest that an increase in the number of women employed in non-traditional occupations, growth of financial institutions, development of transport and communication infrastructure, reduction in infant mortality, and improvement in education are the forces that drove fertility decline in nineteenth-century Prussia.

 

Galloway, Patrick R., Lee, Ronald D., and Hammel, Eugene A.,  "Fertility decline in Prussia 1875 to 1910: a pooled cross-section time series analysis," Population Studies, 1994, vol. 48, no. 1, pp. 135-158. Download.

 

Lee, Ronald D., Galloway, Patrick R.,  and Hammel, Eugene.A., "Fertility decline in Prussia: estimating influences on supply, demand and degree of control," Demography, 1994, vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 347-373. Download.

 

Galloway, Patrick R., Lee, Ronald D., and Hammel, Eugene A., "Urban versus rural: fertility decline in the cities and rural districts of Prussia, 1875 to 1910," European Journal of Population, 1998, vol. 14, pp. 209-264. Download.

 

Galloway, Patrick R., Lee, Ronald D., and Hammel, Eugene A., "Infant mortality and the fertility transition: macro evidence from Europe and new findings for Prussia," in From Death to Births: Mortality Decline and Reproductive Change, 1998, Washington D.C.: National Academy of Sciences, eds. Cohen, B. and Montgomery, M., Chapter 6, pp. 182-226. Download.

 

Galloway, Patrick R., "Fertility decline and social democracy in Prussia 1875 to 1910", 2009. Download.

 

Note:  In September 2010, while reviewing a paper for a publication, I came across a reference to an undated and unpaginated report with my name on it as a co-author.   The last I looked, the title was something like "Report on the Project: Economic and Cultural Factors in Demographic Behavior".   The source was a link found on a University of California web page.  Whoever wrote the report (a kind of summary) put my name on it as co-author without my knowledge.  In fact, I had never read or seen the report.  As it turns out, the report has a number of errors and unsubstantiated claims.  I suggest that anyone interested in fertility decline in Prussia read the published articles.

 

Population change in the pre-industrial era

 
I am focusing a lot of energy these days on this topic, making good use of the topographic maps described in this website.  I am interested in population fluctuations from around 3000 BC to around AD 1900.


For some recent links which cite my articles, click here.

Copyright Patrick R. Galloway
www.patrickgalloway.com